Philippe J. Fournier

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of 338Canada.com, Qc125.com, a regular contributor to L’actualité magazine and a professor of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. Watch Maclean’s for his upcoming vote projections for the federal election.

338Canada: The by-election that could break the Parti Québécois

Philippe J. Fournier: In an April 11 by-election, the PQ will battle for one of its last seats. To lose the former stronghold could threaten the survival of the party.

Ford attends a news conference in Toronto, as further restrictions are announced to combat the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, on Jan. 3, 2022. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press)

338Canada: The Trudeau-Singh agreement could weigh on the Ontario campaign

Philippe J. Fournier: Our latest projection still has Ford solidly in the lead, but anything short of a majority will undoubtedly invite talk of cooperation between the Liberals and NDP

Legault chairs a premiers news conference as premiers John Horgan, Kenney, and Scott Moe appear onscreen, on March 4, 2021 in Montreal (Ryan Remiorz/CP)

338Canada: A tale of two premiers

Philippe J. Fournier: A few years ago, Francois Legault and Jason Kenney were making history. Today, only one of them is sure to survive their next election.

Trump arrives at a rally, on March 12, 2022, in Florence, S.C. (AP Photo/Meg Kinnard)

338Canada: Trumpism is alive and well on Canada’s right

Philippe J. Fournier: Almost two years and a failed insurrection later, a significant number of Canadian Conservatives still support former president Trump

Charest stands as he is recognized by the Speaker of the House of Commons following Question Period, on April 1, 2019 in Ottawa (Adrian Wyld/CP)

338Canada: Jean Charest’s (near) impossible task

Philippe J. Fournier: Charest may need to recruit as many as 100,000 new members—or 1,000 per day—to stand any chance in the leadership race

Ford makes an announcement at the Runnymede Healthcare Centre in Toronto on March 3, 2022 (Nathan Denette/CP)

338Canada: The likely Doug Ford majority

Philippe J. Fournier: With the Ontario NDP and Liberals at near-identical levels of support, neither has a realistic chance of making substantial seat gains from the PCs

Anglade questions Legault over COVID management, during Question Period on Feb. 8, 2022, at the legislature in Quebec City (Jacques Boissinot/CP)

338Canada: A new era of Quebec politics

Philippe J. Fournier: The dominant parties of the past 60 years, the Quebec Liberals and the PQ, continue their decline in public opinion. It’s all CAQ now.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland bumps elbows with Poilievre before appearing at the House of Commons Finance committee, on Dec. 9, 2021 in Ottawa (Adrian Wyld/CP)

Poilievre is the favourite, but his potential for growth is limited: 338Canada

Philippe J. Fournier: He may be on his way to a coronation, but Pierre Poilievre as CPC leader would not have an immediate dramatic effect on the federal numbers

O'Toole speaks during a media availability on Parliament Hill on Jan. 27, 2022 (Justin Tang/CP)

338Canada: Erin O’Toole is trapped

Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservative leader’s latest personal popularity numbers are bleak, inside and outside his party

Ford arrives to a press conference at Queen’s Park on Jan. 20, 2022 (Nathan Denette/CP)

Who can best challenge Doug Ford in June? Polls disagree.

Philippe J. Fournier: The PCs still have the edge in our latest projection, but a collection of diverging polls suggest public opinion is in flux

Legault speaks during a news conference in Montreal on Dec. 30, 2021 (Graham Hughes/CP)

338Canada: In a Quebec first, Legault takes a hit

Philippe J. Fournier: A new Mainstreet poll suggests the ‘pandemic honeymoon’ between the CAQ and Quebec voters may have finally reached a limit

Trudeau meets with the Premier of Nova Scotia Tim Houston in his office in the West Block on Parliament Hill on Nov. 22, 2021 (Sean Kilpatrick/CP)

338Canada: Who’s still angry at Ottawa

Philippe J. Fournier: A new survey looking at federal-provincial attitudes suggests that even in Quebec and Alberta, regional resentment is not on the rise