Posts by Philippe J. Fournier

O'Toole and Trudeau smile during the federal election French-language leaders debate on Sept. 8, 2021 in Gatineau, Que. (Justin Tang/CP)

Where the parties stand on debate day: 338Canada

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest election projection sees the parties deadlocked. But the Conservatives may have reached their ceiling early in the campaign.

Trudeau speaks with steel workers at a campaign stop at a steel plant in Welland, Ont., on Sept. 6, 2021 (Nathan Denette/CP)

Ottawa

338Canada: The Liberals stop the bleeding, at least

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest election projection shows the two main parties deadlocked, though the Conservatives remain the favourites to win the most seats

Ottawa

Polls show O’Toole is the favourite. Voters don’t seem convinced.

Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives are ahead, say the polls. But they also tell us that many voters believe Justin Trudeau will remain in power after the election.

Ottawa

338Canada: The Conservatives surge, the Liberals slide

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338 projection shows the Liberals falling two seats per day since the campaign began. The Conservatives are the new favourites.

Ottawa

338Canada: The Liberals stumble out of the gate in week one

Philippe J. Fournier: After one week, our projection shows the race tightening, support for the NDP growing and the odds of a Liberal majority shrinking

Ottawa

338Canada: The Liberals cannot afford voter apathy

Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus survey points to growing pessimism with the government. It is not a reassuring sign for Justin Trudeau and his team.

Conservative supporters react to polling results at party headquarters in Regina on Oct. 21, 2019 (Jeff McIntosh/CP)

Ottawa

338Canada: What did the polls say in 2019?

Philippe J. Fournier: In their final federal polls of the 2019 campaign, Canada’s pollsters did very well. The miss was largely in underestimating the Conservatives.

Trudeau greets the media after an announcement in Brampton, Ont., on July, 19, 2021 (Christopher Katsarov/CP)

Ottawa

338Canada: Trudeau’s election to lose

Philippe J. Fournier: A majority is within reach for the Liberals, but the NDP’s current level of support could yet throw a wrench into their plans

Ottawa

Federal election 2021: Know your pollsters

Philippe J. Fournier: A detailed look at where the country’s top 10 polling firms land when measuring federal polls‚ and which way they tend to skew

Trudeau makes at an announcement in Moncton, N.B., on July 27, 2021 (Ron Ward/CP)

Politics

A fall election? The Liberals may not get a better window.

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338Canada model suggests it will be a challenge for the Liberals to win a majority, and it’s unlikely to get any easier

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