Posts by Philippe J. Fournier

Trump waves to the crowd as he leaves after speaking during a campaign event at the Orlando Sanford International Airport on Oct. 12, 2020 in Sanford, Florida (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The odds of a Trump win? 19 per cent: 338Canada election forecast

Philippe J. Fournier: The current map shows a distinct advantage towards Joe Biden. But any victory will ultimately come down to three crucial states.

Horgan is given a tour of a supermarket at a campaign stop in Vancouver on Oct. 1, 2020 (CP/Darryl Dyck)

Politics

338Canada exclusive poll: The B.C. NDP’s commanding lead

Philippe J. Fournier: John Horgan’s election gamble appears to be paying off, with a new Mainstreet poll showing an NDP majority and the Liberals in trouble

Trump takes questions during a news briefing at the White House on March 18, 2020 (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Politics

How much do Canadians dislike Donald Trump? A lot.

A new 338Canada/Léger poll shows that from coast to coast Canadians overwhelmingly support Biden over Trump. The only exception is among Conservatives.

Biden will face Trump on Sept. 29, 2020, for the first of three U.S. presidential election debates (Olivier DOULIERY and Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images)

Washington

Where the U.S. election will be won or lost (and why Trump still has a shot): 338Canada

Philippe J. Fournier: Biden’s lead in the polls has been remarkably consistent. The key will be what happens in states Trump narrowly won in 2016.

NDP Leader John Horgan arrives for an election campaign stop in Surrey, B.C., on Sept. 23, 2020 (CP/Jonathan Hayward

Politics

The B.C. election at the starting line: 338Canada projection

Philippe J. Fournier: The NDP begins the campaign comfortably in majority territory with an average of 55 seats, while the Liberals face an uphill battle

Premier Blaine Higgs with his family after winning the New Brunswick provincial election in Quispamsis, N.B. on Sept. 14, 2020 (CP/Andrew Vaughan)

Ottawa

The New Brunswick election: a victory for the 338Canada model

Philippe J. Fournier: The 338Canada projection model hit the mark yet again, and has now identified the winner in 90 per cent of all districts over five elections

O'Toole holds a press conference on Parliament Hill on Sept. 2, 2020 (CP/Sean Kilpatrick)

Ottawa

Liberals and Tories are virtually tied: 338Canada election projection

Philippe J. Fournier: The Liberals still hold the seat count advantage, but their numbers keep slipping while the Conservatives see an uptick in Ontario

Canada

Progressive Conservatives in majority territory in New Brunswick poll: 338Canada

Philippe J. Fournier: As of this moment, Blaine Higgs’s PCs are projected to win an average of 28 seats to the Liberals 17. The Greens are solidly in third place.

Trudeau holds a press conference on Parliament Hill on July 16, 2020 (CP/Sean Kilpatrick)

Ottawa

338Canada projection: The ever-dwindling Liberal lead

Philippe J. Fournier: The Liberals have returned to earth, but neither the Conservatives nor the NDP are profiting from it. Can a new CPC leader move the needle?

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney speaks to reporters in Edmonton on February 24, 2020 (CP/Jason Franson)

Ottawa

How polls keep underestimating the Conservative vote: 338Canada

Philippe J. Fournier: Canadian political polls tend to hit the mark, except when it comes to counting Conservative support in the West. What’s going wrong?

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