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“The appeal of terrorism is waning,” said Mathew J. Burrows, head of long-range analysis in the office of the director of national intelligence and a lead author of “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.” Mr. Burrows said polls and anecdotal evidence strongly suggested disillusionment among Muslims with Al Qaeda and its methods and goals since the 2001 terrorist attacks.

The predicted decline of Al Qaeda is one of the few bright spots in the generally gloomy report, which describes a decline in the United States’ world dominance as China, India and other powers assert themselves.

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