How Canada Can Become a Nuclear Superpower

I first got interested in nuclear energy after the birth of my son in 2018. As an emergency physician, I specialize in triage, focusing limited time and resources on the most urgent problems. When I applied that logic to the climate crisis, the defining threat facing my son’s generation, the power of nuclear energy became clear. Between 1971 and 1993, Canada commissioned 22 reactors—one per year—resulting in one of the fastest per capita additions of clean energy the world has ever seen. In Ontario, nuclear enabled North America’s only large-scale coal phase-out, preventing thousands of premature deaths from heart attacks, strokes and respiratory diseases created by air pollution. And in my ER, I regularly used catheters and syringes sterilized by cobalt-60—a by-product of some reactors. By 2020, I’d put my newfound passion into practice and co-founded the nuclear-advocacy organization Canadians for Nuclear Energy. We push to save existing plants from premature closure—and for new ones to be built.

Canada’s nuclear sector doesn’t only fascinate me because of its public-health contributions. The CANDU reactor, invented and refined by Canadian engineers and scientists over the last 60 years, is now the third most widely deployed reactor design in the world. Funnily enough, it was created to solve a challenge this country faces again today: avoiding dependence on U.S. nuclear technology. Back in the ’50s, as Americans were developing light-water reactors, engineers in Deep River, Ontario, were finding ways to work around Canada’s lack of uranium enrichment and metal-forging infrastructure, required to build the massive pressure vessels of American models. They created CANDU, whose modular core of 480 fuel channels used heavy water (containing deuterium, a heavier form of hydrogen), allowing it to run on unenriched Canadian uranium. From mine to megawatt, almost every component of the CANDU system was—and still is—Canadian-made.

Now, nuclear power is poised for a comeback. Global demand is set to increase more than twofold by 2050, thanks to a widespread push to lower emissions and the emerging energy requirements of AI data centres. Here at home, as climate change–driven droughts continue to compromise our once seemingly boundless hydroelectricity, Canada faces an epochal choice: build 10 to 20 large CANDU reactors across the country to replace those power losses and meet skyrocketing demand for clean energy, or pivot to investing in U.S. reactor technology. In the context of Donald Trump’s trade war, expanding CANDU—a tariff-proof option—seems like the obvious call. But Canada will have to work hard to avoid backsliding into energetic dependence on our neighbour to the south.

Canada has increasingly adopted a branch-plant economy, in which foreign companies set up factories or offices here—not to build homegrown industries, but outposts controlled from abroad (mostly the U.S.). This approach can limit innovation, keeping high-value activities like R&D in the parent countries. With CANDU’s proven record worldwide, Canada may be the most credible Western country to lead the global nuclear renaissance. But, as we plan our first new fleet of large domestic reactors in decades, we’re at risk of ceding our edge to U.S.-based firms like Westinghouse and GE Hitachi—companies looking to de-risk their American reactor designs by building them in Ontario. This would allow them to leverage Canada’s skilled nuclear workforce, while keeping IP and even fuel manufacturing south of the border.

Owning and operating our very own CANDU reactor technology can interrupt this trend. The IP for it is held by Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., a Crown corporation. The scientific and engineering work happens in Ontario: at Canadian Nuclear Laboratories in Chalk River and Sheridan Park in Mississauga. We mine uranium in Saskatchewan, manufacture fuel in Peterborough and Port Hope, and fabricate CANDU components at hundreds of Canadian businesses. Our Canadian project record is also stellar: between 2019 and 2021, one CANDU unit at Darlington Nuclear Generating Station in Ontario ran continuously for 1106 days, setting a world record for the longest uninterrupted run of any thermal generation plant in the world. And since 2016, four refurbishments have been completed at the Bruce and Darlington nuclear stations, with two more underway. All have been uniformly on budget and ahead of schedule, and 10 more are planned for the next decade. Canada’s momentum stands in sharp contrast to that of the U.S., whose nuclear industry has atrophied. Only two new American-style light-water reactors have been built this century; both suffered immense cost overruns and delays.

Of course, skeptics will ask, “Why should Canada invest in CANDU, a 70-year-old technology, when newer ones exist?” Much like the diesel engine (first built in 1892) and the jet turbine (unveiled in 1937), CANDU is a mature technology whose safety, operations and economics  have improved iteratively as real-world lessons have been incorporated into its design. Another question: “Why not just build renewables instead?” Solar panels may be getting cheaper and cheaper, but they’re also ineffective for months during the dark Canadian winter. Wind energy, too, often goes AWOL during heatwaves and cold snaps, which could prove deadly if AC or heaters fail at either temperature extreme. And wherever wind and solar have been deployed at scale, electricity prices have risen. That’s because weather-dependent energy generation requires massive grid upgrades, along with a parallel backup system capable of meeting 100 per cent of demand when wind and sunshine don’t show up. As we electrify heating, we’ll need reliable power for heat pumps—CANDU projects can supply it.

And what about small modular reactors, or SMRs? The nuclear industry began promoting them in the wake of Fukushima and the global financial crisis, when public support for nuclear collapsed and power demand stagnated. SMRs offered a rebrand: smaller, friendlier-sounding reactors that were supposedly easier to finance and quicker to build. The problem is that “SMR” is a vague umbrella term that covers a grab bag of technologies—including reactors capable of powering small, remote villages and reactors that can power half-a-million homes. As SMRs move from PowerPoint to construction, industry optimism is colliding with reality: small reactors are, in fact, more expensive to build and operate. (They generate less power and, therefore, revenue, while requiring more concrete and human resources to construct and run.) Exotic designs like molten salt reactors are promising science projects, but they’re decades away from commercial viability. CANDU, by contrast, is reliable and cost-effective today.

Even still, building new reactors in Canada won’t be cheap. As with hydroelectricity, these are capital-intensive mega-projects, likely to cost taxpayers and private investors $10 to $12 billion to power one million homes. Once finished, however, CANDU models can provide low-cost electricity for generations. With refurbishments, Canada’s existing fleet of 17 large reactors are expected to reach 60 to 70 years of service life, with the possibility of further extension to a century.

When it comes to making the case for CANDU, I occasionally reference the words of my great-great-great grandfather, Thomas Coltrin Keefer, a renowned Canadian civil engineer. In 1868, he wrote that hydroelectricity could liberate the country from its bondage to American coal. It would electrolytically refine complex ores, raise new cities in the forest and lighten the drudgery of menial tasks. He was right: Canada went on to build extraordinary hydropower networks in Quebec, Labrador, Ontario, Manitoba and B.C. The nuclear build-out of the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s continued that legacy. Now, Trump’s trade war is pushing us forward yet again: Canada must shed its complacency, act strategically in its national interest and build a dozen (or more) CANDU reactors across the country. We won’t just stand on our own two feet—we’ll be a nuclear-energy superpower.

Chris Keefer is a co-founder of Canadians For Nuclear Energy, host of the Decouple podcast and an emergency physician in Toronto.