Euro elections: Incumbents do well if they’re conservative

I have no elaborate theory that explains why incumbent parties did well in the weekend’s elections to the European Parliament, as long as they were centre-right incumbent parties. UMP in France, CDU in Germany, Civic Platform in Poland: a good night. Spanish Socialists, the Gordon Brown rump in Britain: Not so good. It really is a pretty robust trend across the continent, as Le Monde’s nifty map shows.

Nor do I think it’s axiomatic that Canada’s Conservatives will do comparably well the next time they face an electoral test. To say the least, I don’t think Canadian voters carefully scrutinize the Euro election polls before deciding where their own hearts lie. But I thought I’d put all this out there for your delectation and debate.