Oh, EKOS. It’s like you’re not even trying anymore: 32.8/30.2/17.3/11.0/8.7
Really, is this all we get?
Conservatives: 32.8 (+0.1)
Liberals: 30.2 (-0.8)
NDP: 17.3 (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois 8.7 (-1)
Green: 11.0 (+0.9)
Ineligible/undecided: 15.8 (+0.4)
No bonus poll, no pithy analysis — not even regional breakdowns? What have we done to deserve this?
How are we supposed to know if it’s just a coincidence that the NDP numbers jumped by exactly the same amount that the Liberals slumped? What about that tenth of a percent that the Conservatives picked up — was it at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois, with the rest going to the Green Party? And where did that additional 0.4% of undecideds come from? At least the daily tracking graph shows that the NDP experienced an enviable little post-convention bounce — they were practically tied with the Liberals earlier this week! But is it permanent, or just a passing fad? And how can Stephen Harper — or Michael Ignatieff, or Jack Layton, for that matter — transform numbers like these into a functional minority, let alone a majority?
UPDATE: Okay, so it’s official: As per the EKOS-o-gram that just popped up in the ITQ inbox, due to “holiday schedules,” no analysis will be provided this week. It does, however, include the regional breakdowns, which suggest the Conservatives have all but caught up with the Liberals in Ontario, and the NDP is riding high in both British Columbia and Atlantic Canada:
I’ll update with a link to the full PDF as soon as it goes up on the EKOS site.
STILL MORE UPDATEY GOODNESS:
Because you all know how much ITQ enjoys a little math first thing in the morning — especially with decimal points! — she figured out the changes in the regional numbers between this week and last. Figured them out in her head, y’all. Now that’s devotion to duty:
British Columbia
Libs – 32.1 (+5.3)
NDP – 27.4 (+0.8)
CPC – 27 (-4.3)
Green – 13.6 (-2.9)
Alberta
CPC – 58.9 (-4.1)
Libs – 16.7 (-0.8)
Greens – 13.2 (+4.8)
NDP – 11.3 (+0.1)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba
CPC – 50.8 (+6.6)
NDP – 24.6 (+4.6)
Libs – 20 (-9.7)
Greens – 4.7 (-1.1)
Ontario
Libs – 36.3 (-2.5)
CPC – 35.4 (-0.1)
NDP – 15.9 (-1.2)
Greens – 12.4 (+1.4)
Quebec
Bloc – 35 (-3.5)
Libs – 27.7 (+0.4)
CPC – 16.5 (+0.2)
NDP – 12.8 (+1.7)
Greens – 8 (+1.2)
Atlantic Canada
Libs – 32.5 (-0.3)
CPC – 31.7 (+6.1)
NDP – 22.9 (-7.2)
Greens – 12.9 (+1.4)
Share
Really, is this all we get?
Conservatives: 32.8 (+0.1)
Liberals: 30.2 (-0.8)
NDP: 17.3 (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois 8.7 (-1)
Green: 11.0 (+0.9)
Ineligible/undecided: 15.8 (+0.4)
No bonus poll, no pithy analysis — not even regional breakdowns? What have we done to deserve this?
How are we supposed to know if it’s just a coincidence that the NDP numbers jumped by exactly the same amount that the Liberals slumped? What about that tenth of a percent that the Conservatives picked up — was it at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois, with the rest going to the Green Party? And where did that additional 0.4% of undecideds come from? At least the daily tracking graph shows that the NDP experienced an enviable little post-convention bounce — they were practically tied with the Liberals earlier this week! But is it permanent, or just a passing fad? And how can Stephen Harper — or Michael Ignatieff, or Jack Layton, for that matter — transform numbers like these into a functional minority, let alone a majority?
UPDATE: Okay, so it’s official: As per the EKOS-o-gram that just popped up in the ITQ inbox, due to “holiday schedules,” no analysis will be provided this week. It does, however, include the regional breakdowns, which suggest the Conservatives have all but caught up with the Liberals in Ontario, and the NDP is riding high in both British Columbia and Atlantic Canada:
I’ll update with a link to the full PDF as soon as it goes up on the EKOS site.
STILL MORE UPDATEY GOODNESS:
Because you all know how much ITQ enjoys a little math first thing in the morning — especially with decimal points! — she figured out the changes in the regional numbers between this week and last. Figured them out in her head, y’all. Now that’s devotion to duty:
British Columbia
Libs – 32.1 (+5.3)
NDP – 27.4 (+0.8)
CPC – 27 (-4.3)
Green – 13.6 (-2.9)
Alberta
CPC – 58.9 (-4.1)
Libs – 16.7 (-0.8)
Greens – 13.2 (+4.8)
NDP – 11.3 (+0.1)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba
CPC – 50.8 (+6.6)
NDP – 24.6 (+4.6)
Libs – 20 (-9.7)
Greens – 4.7 (-1.1)
Ontario
Libs – 36.3 (-2.5)
CPC – 35.4 (-0.1)
NDP – 15.9 (-1.2)
Greens – 12.4 (+1.4)
Quebec
Bloc – 35 (-3.5)
Libs – 27.7 (+0.4)
CPC – 16.5 (+0.2)
NDP – 12.8 (+1.7)
Greens – 8 (+1.2)
Atlantic Canada
Libs – 32.5 (-0.3)
CPC – 31.7 (+6.1)
NDP – 22.9 (-7.2)
Greens – 12.9 (+1.4)