From our friend Paul Adams, who seems to be everywhere this autumn and who is blogging on these Ekos robo-polls for — well, for his employer, Ekos, I’ve brazenly swiped this damned interesting chart. In return for my larceny, I ask you to follow the link to Paul’s explanation. My own explanation comes below, after the chart…
Voter Retention
|
|
Reported Vote – 2006 | |||||
|
Vote Intention – 2008 |
CPC |
LPC |
NDP |
BQ |
Green |
Did not vote |
|
Conservative |
84 |
18 |
5 |
9 |
11 |
35 |
|
Liberal |
6 |
62 |
13 |
5 |
13 |
18 |
|
NDP |
5 |
11 |
74 |
11 |
6 |
30 |
|
Bloc Québécois |
1 |
1 |
1 |
71 |
2 |
1 |
|
Green |
4 |
8 |
7 |
4 |
68 |
16 |
This chart collates some of what pollsters call “cross-tabs” from the latest Ekos Cylon Terminator robo-poll. Stated party support from the 2006 election is cross-indexed with stated party preference in this election right here now. So if you look down from “CPC,” you see that 84% of people who seem to recall voting for the Harper Conservatives in 2006 are now planning to vote for the Harper Conservatives again. Similarly, the NDP seems likely to keep 74% of its 2006 voters, the Bloc 71% of their voters, the Greens 68%, and… the Dion Liberals are on track to keep 62% of those who voted for the Paul Martin Liberals.
Where are those leaking Liberals leaking to? One in five of them plan to vote for the Harper Conservatives. In contrast, only 6% of 2006 Harper Conservative voters are angry enough to plan to switch to the Liberals.
Anyway, Paul Adams has more.