It’s a bit odd learning that a hurricane bears one’s first name. Yesterday, when I saw the first announcements that hurricane Patricia was brewing off the west coast of Mexico, I joked that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had acknowledged my power and might. That tongue-in-cheek attitude vanished upon reading more about this behemoth.
It is a monster: a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 325 kh/h (and higher gusts). NOAA’s National Hurricane Center calls it “the strongest eastern north Pacific hurricane on record.” That has been strengthened to the strongest ever in the Western Hemisphere. The most recent comparable storm is typhoon Haiyan, which destroyed swathes of the Philippines in 2013, killing some 6,300.
The U.S. agency warns that Patricia is heading for “potentially catastrophic landfall in southwestern Mexico later today.” The pressure at its centre is the lowest recorded of any such storm in three decades. That means it will land hard. In addition to the dangerous winds, Patricia is expected to bring intense flooding and storm surge.
Right now, the state of Jalisco appears to be where it will touch land, with the tourist resort of Puerto Vallarta as its main target. The hurricane is expected to hit on Friday afternoon or evening. The airport closed on Friday morning, beachfront hotels are evacuating tourists, and Mexican officials are urging everyone to get to prepared shelters. It could be the worst storm to hit the nation in half a century, according to Mexico’s president. (An estimated 2,000 Canadians are in the areas affected, CBC reports. Foreign Affairs urges them to contact the embassy if they require help.)
UPDATE: As of 4 p.m. EDT on Friday, NOAA forecast that it would hit land within hours and then rapidly move inland:
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 105.3 West. Patricia is now moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and a faster forward motion are expected this afternoon, with this motion continuing tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should cross the coast in the hurricane warning area during the next several hours. After landfall, the center of Patricia is expected to move quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico.
Mexico often has to contend with tropical storms developing in the warm waters off both its western and eastern coasts. Because of the presence of El Niño, the NOAA forecast an “above-normal” storm season in the east Pacific. As it explained, “El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, which favours more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño is already affecting the wind and rainfall patterns across the equatorial and subtropical Pacific Ocean.” It predicted seven to 12 hurricanes with up to eight major storms. Patricia is the 13th such hurricane of the season.
What makes this storm so alarming is the explosive speed at which it gained strength. On Thursday morning, it was a typical tropical storm that might strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane. Around 12 hours later, it was turning into a Category 5. “This is really, really, really strong,” World Meteorological Organization spokeswoman Clare Nullis said. The hurricane’s winds are strong enough “to get a plane in the air and keep it flying.”
#Patricia now close to theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone https://t.co/3siEvjidN0 pic.twitter.com/pyzVV8HdI7 v @EricHolthaus
— Rowan Hooper (@rowhoop) October 23, 2015
Weather services around the world are warning of its power, and hope the warnings come in time.
Recent satellite loop shows the eye of #Hurricane #Patricia as it heads towards #Mexico pic.twitter.com/KEr0RMRlvF — Met Office Storms (@metofficestorms) October 23, 2015
Hurricane #Patricia is the most intense on record for E Northern Pacific, pressure of 892 hPa, per @conagua_mx pic.twitter.com/C81SIpZOEf — WMO | OMM (@WMOnews) October 23, 2015
Key messages from NHC for Hurricane Patricia at 10 am CDT Friday Oct 23rd. #Patricia https://t.co/Oy8uoeRKme pic.twitter.com/7ZfsowKz6k — NHC E. Pacific Ops (@NHC_Pacific) October 23, 2015