Want to Ease the Housing Crisis? Build High-Speed Rail.
For many Canadians, long commutes are an annoying reality. According to Statistics Canada, more than 1.5 million people endure a work commute of an hour or more each way. A one-way drive from Windsor to Toronto can take four hours, and Quebec City to Montreal is three. VIA Rail service is consistent but still a time drain—Windsor to Toronto takes over four hours by train, Kingston to Ottawa two. The hours add up, stealing precious time from work, family and leisure. People make these sacrifices, however, for a trade-off: lower housing prices and cost of living in outlying cities, paired with high-paying work in major hubs.
Urban housing prices are at generational highs. In Vancouver, a typical house costs nearly $1.3 million, while in Toronto it’s $1.1 million. Even people with above-average salaries in major cities struggle to afford these astronomical prices. But they stay there for jobs and higher wages, stretching their budgets and unable to save or afford basic necessities. Compare those Toronto and Vancouver prices to Windsor, where homes cost an average of $570,000, or Kingston, where an average home is $620,000. One solution to this disconnect: high-speed rail, or HSR, in which trains travel at least 200 kilometres per hour. Connecting workers in affordable communities to cities like Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal could ease the pressure.
High-speed rail is hardly a new concept—Japan’s Shinkansen bullet train has been around since 1964. It runs on dedicated tracks designed to minimize sharp curves and level crossings for faster travel; its electric trains cut down air resistance. France’s double-deck TGV stretches over 2,800 kilometres, and China’s Shanghai Maglev hits speeds of up to 460 kilometres per hour. In Canada, high-speed rail could make the trip from Windsor to Toronto in just an hour and 15 minutes, from Quebec City to Montreal in 55 minutes, and from Kingston to Ottawa in only 40 minutes.
Politicians at every level of government have touted the need for HSR sporadically over the last few years. Canada remains the only G7 country without one—a major shortcoming given our vast geography and the clear need for efficient long-distance travel. Back in the ’60s and ’70s, VIA Rail took a stab at it with the Turbo Train on the Toronto-Montreal route. It reached speeds of 201 kilometres per hour and was the first high-speed train in North America, but it ultimately failed because of unfit tracks and persistent mechanical issues. Other attempts at HSR were derailed by technical challenges and the limitations of existing infrastructure.
Over the next few weeks, however, the federal government is set to announce detailed plans for a high-speed rail linking Toronto and Quebec City, with stops in Peterborough, Ottawa, Montreal, Trois-Rivières and Laval. It could reach speeds of up to 300 kilometres per hour—more than twice as fast as VIA Rail’s current service. Extending the line west to Windsor would cover over half of Canada’s population. But with an election looming, the high-speed rail’s fate could lie in the hands of a new government, who may choose to cancel the project entirely.
Transport Canada pegs the cost of the Toronto–Quebec City HSR at up to $80 billion, though some experts warn it could climb to $120 billion, depending on routes, the need for tunnels or bridges and land acquisition. But the benefits are immense. HSR creates thousands of jobs during construction, followed by maintenance positions, and it drives economic activity in transit-accessible areas. Environmentally, an HSR system—powered largely by sustainable electric engines—cuts emissions. For example, France’s TGV emits around three grams of carbon dioxide per passenger–kilometre, compared to 153 grams for domestic flights. Within a few years of launching it, air travel between Paris and Lyon dropped significantly. It also reduced car travel along the A6 highway, which was known for heavy congestion.
Crucially, HSR could connect people to affordable housing. An IT worker who earns $85,000 in Toronto could settle in Windsor and afford a $570,000 home, travelling to work in a fraction of the time of a Via Rail trip. A couple in Ottawa making $120,000 could buy a $450,000 home in Kingston—all without losing access to big-city jobs and amenities. In the long run, HSR could ease housing pressure in urban cores. In Japan, for instance, the Shinkansen helped relieve congestion and home prices in its three largest cities. Over six decades, housing prices in these metro areas remained lower than they would have been without high-speed rail.
Some headwinds still remain. Like any major infrastructure project, a high-speed rail system will face pushback from various stakeholders. One of the biggest concerns is cost—building and maintaining HSR would require significant public funding. Public debt increased for many of the countries that built high-speed rails: Japan’s state-owned Japanese National Railways accumulated a debt of around US$550 billion (adjusted for today’s dollars) by 1987, largely due to the construction of high-speed rail lines. Property values might also rise in areas near HSR lines. For instance, housing prices in Chinese cities connected by HSR increased significantly in the years after its introduction. And even once the system is built, ingrained habits may prove hard to break; many people might still prefer their personal vehicles.
But the benefits outweigh those costs—and the government can find ways to build HSR efficiently and garner support for this transformative project. Systemically, we could integrate high-speed rail into local transportation networks and provide an interconnected and efficient system for commuters. Centralized HSR stations could be designed as multimodal hubs that bring together local buses, subways, taxis, ride-sharing and bike-sharing—all in one place. This setup would make it easy for passengers to easily switch between modes of transport. HSR stations could also be strategically placed near major local transit hubs, like subway stations or bus terminals, to improve accessibility and cut down on transfer times. Integrating ticketing and scheduling with local transport systems would allow passengers to purchase a single ticket for their entire journeys. By creating smooth transitions between high-speed rail and local transport, HSR could form the nucleus of a comprehensive, integrated transit network that effectively serves both short- and long-distance travellers.
Looking ahead, once HSR is efficiently up and running, it would generate its own demand. In economics this is called “induced demand.” For example, if you lived in an area with no or poor roads, it’s unlikely you would want to drive. Once smooth and safe roads are built, the demand to use them is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The same would be true for HSR—once it’s running comfortably, efficiently and affordably, more people will use it. Millennials, who are already less inclined to own cars compared to previous generations, could form its core user base. As an eco-friendly option, HSR would reduce reliance on personal vehicles, cutting emissions and easing road congestion.
It has been at least a generation since Canada has built anything of global or national significance. Projects of a bygone era include the CN Tower, the Canadarm and even the Trans-Canada Highway that spans the entire breadth of this nation. And perhaps gone with these achievements is the vision to plan a generation ahead. It would require strategic foresight and focused political desire to advance installations for the good of future generations. We are reminded of the old Greek proverb: “A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.”
Imran Abdool is a business consultant and lecturer at the Ivey Business School, Western University. Peter A. Voyer is a professor of marketing at the Odette School of Business, University of Windsor.
