Ten Health Care Predictions for 2025

1. A Canadian Will Lead the Fight Against Antibiotic Resistance

Jon Stokes made his name by besting the smallest enemies. In 2023, Stokes, an assistant professor of biochemistry and biomedical sciences at McMaster University, was part of the research team behind SyntheMol, a generative AI model that can create new antibiotics to fight A. baumannii—a mega-deadly bacterium that proliferates in hospitals. He didn’t stop there: this past June, he co-founded Stoked Bio, a Hamilton-based biotech startup aimed at concocting and quickly commercializing new medicines for cancer and, especially, bacterial infections. With AI’s help, the goal is for Stokes’s pharmaceuticals to out-multiply the problematic microbes that are outsmarting our existing antibiotics.

2. Pharmacare Will Finally Get Off the Ground

The supply-and-confidence agreement between the Liberals and NDP is dead. Among its legacies is Bill C-64, guaranteeing universal coverage for certain contraceptive and diabetes medications to anyone who holds a prescription. Initially, Health Minister Mark Holland set a goal to have “drugs flowing” by April 1, 2025. Key details of the $1.5-billion program still need to be ironed out, however—including the negotiation of bilateral agreements with provinces and territories.

3. New Med Schools Will Open Up the Family Doctor Pipeline

Canada’s family doctor crisis is only getting worse, and the numbers are shocking. In British Columbia, 27 per cent of residents don’t have a GP. In Quebec, it’s more than 30 per cent. Projections show that more than a quarter of Ontarians may be without access by 2026. In part, this is because the number of med-school grads choosing family medicine has plunged. Thankfully, new med schools will start training GPs in 2025. The Toronto Metropolitan University School of Medicine, opening in Brampton, Ontario, next summer, will admit 94 students in its first year. Cape Breton University will establish Nova Scotia’s second medical school, with a focus on rural practice, taking 30 students per year. Simon Fraser University will open a family medicine–focused med school on its Surrey, B.C., campus in 2026, and York University’s forthcoming medical school in Vaughan, Ontario, with a focus on primary care, is to open in 2028. Better late than never. 

4. For-Profit Care Providers Will Proliferate

As the feds continue playing private care Whac-A-Mole, creative ventures keep surfacing. In Airdrie, Alberta, One Health Medical has proposed a combined urgent-plus-primary-care clinic prototype to function as a one-stop shop for Albertans in need of checkups, CT scans and other services. The project is still pending provincial approval, but it’s already kicked up controversy. In the past, Alberta has engaged private corporations to handle surgical backlogs and lab work. The Airdrie effort, however, would be the first urgent care centre run by a for-profit operator—a genie public health advocates say would be impossible to put back in the bottle.

5. Shrooms Will Boom

Mushroom shops, with their capsules, chocolates and psychedelic signage, are cropping up at the pace cannabis stores did a few years ago. Selling psilocybin remains illegal, and raids do happen, but police tend to prioritize busting drugs such as opioids. And mushroom moonshots, like Vancouver’s Optimi Health Corp., are giving psilocybin a patina of legitimacy. Health Canada recently granted Optimi approval to use psilocybin in a clinical trial treating depression as well as a licence to distribute capsules in clinical settings. For now, the company’s main export market is Australia, but it has plenty of backers, including Lululemon founder Chip Wilson.

6. Poilievre Will Double Down on Involuntary Drug Treatment

Pierre Poilevre’s stance on involuntary drug treatment for minors, and prisoners who lack the capacity for decision-making, evolved from a tentative “I’m open to it” in June of 2024 to full-throated support by October. His stance coincided with public anxiety over the opioid crisis, which has killed record numbers of Canadians. Poilievre hasn’t taken a position on involuntary treatment for non-incarcerated adults, but he is a committed opponent of safer supply and advocates for tight border controls to stop the flow of narcotics.

7. Loblaw Will Widen Its Pharmacy Footprint 

Loblaw is banking on becoming a trusted name in health care. Since the grocery conglomerate snapped up Shoppers Drug Mart in 2014 for $12.4 billion, it’s invested in telemedicine and electronic records and rolled out offerings like cholesterol screenings and travel vaccinations. The next step is Shoppers Health Clinics, a brand extension that allows pharmacists to take appointments and prescribe drugs for minor ailments. The service is active in one location in Burlington, Ontario. The goal is to have 250 operational in 2025. The math works: six million Canadians lack regular access to a physician, but 85 per cent live within a 10-minute drive of a Loblaw-owned pharmacy.  

8. The Virtual Care Crackdown Will Commence

The pandemic set off an explosion of private virtual care providers, like Maple. Last summer, Health Minister Mark Holland said he’d clarify exactly how the Canada Health Act applies to for-profit entities that charge fees for health care, raising the spectre of penalties for provinces allowing such companies to operate. Private care providers have said that crackdowns would reduce access to medical care. The Canadian Medical Association, on the other hand, supports clamping down on what it sees as a two-tiered system. 

9. Pharmacists’ Roles Will Expand

As the family doctor shortage persists, pharmacists are filling the gap. In 2023, after COVID double-underlined the primary care crisis, Ontario widened pharmacists’ scope of practice to include prescriptions for 19 minor illnesses and has since expanded the list. Recently, Saskatchewan pharmacists were permitted to perform rapid tests for strep and assess for ear infections. In Nova Scotia, a pilot program allowing pharmacists to provide a broad scope of practice will expand to 45 locations in 2025. Some doctors’ groups have decried these moves, while others physicians have simply called for national consistency as to what pharmacists can and can’t do. 

10. Safe-Consumption Sites Will Close

Last August, Ontario Health Minister Sylvia Jones announced a ban on safe-consumption sites within 200 metres of schools and childcare centres. Ten are set to close by March. Some residents have lauded the shift as a public safety measure. Harm-reduction advocates have called it a deadly mistake that will lead to drug users overdosing without medical supervision.