Demographics blamed for drop in Ontario university applications

Number of 18-year-olds declining in every province

January 20, 2014

University of Guelph students (Jessica Darmanin)

After at least a decade of year-over-year growth, preliminary results from the Ontario University Application Centre show fewer Ontario high school students applied to Ontario universities this January than one year ago. There were 89,272 applicants in 2014 compared to 92,554 in 2013. The deadline to apply was Jan. 15.

The Council of Ontario Universities wrote in a press release that this was expected due to demographic trends and pointed out that demand is still high compared to historical averages. By comparison, 72,972 Ontario high school students applied in in Jan. 2004.

But the statistics are a reminder that the number of Canadians hitting age 18---when they’re most likely to start a post-secondary education---is declining, and that could have implications for anyone interested in attending university in the next decade.

Future students might hope it means less crowded classrooms but a more likely scenario is that newly freed up seats will be filled by the 450,000 international students Canada said last week it will recruit by 2022. The extra spots might also be taken by those who couldn’t previously get in.

	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020	10-year change in 18-year-old residents

Nfld.	6,200	5,800	5,600	5,400	5,400	5,100	-17.7%
P.E.I.	2,100	1,900	1,900	1,800	1,800	1,600	-23.8%
N.S	12,400	11,800	11,500	10,700	10,600	10,000	-19.4%
N.B.	9,600	9,200	8,600	8,300	8,200	7,800	-18.75%
Que.	103,200	98,300	94,200	86,200	84,300	83,200	-19.38%
Ont.	180,200	177,300	175,800	168,00	167,400	165,400	-8.2%
Man.	18,000	17,900	17,400	16,600	16,800	16,400	-8.9%
Sask.	14,900	14,300	13,700	13,100	13,100	12,700	-14.8%
Alta.	50,100	48,800	48,200	46,100	46,200	45,700	-8.8%
B.C	58,300	57,800	57,700	55,400	55,700	55,500	-4.8%

Either way, some provinces will be more affected than others. Statistics Canada’s projected change in the number of 18-year-olds based on a medium growth scenario is presented in the table below. Quebec and Atlantic provinces are expected to have the greatest declines in the number of university-aged residents while Ontario, Alberta, B.C. and Manitoba will be less effected.Source: Statistics Canada. Table 052-0005---Projected population, by projection scenario, sex and age group as of July 1, Canada, provinces and territories, annual (persons), CANSIM (database).

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Josh Dehaas

Josh Dehaas is a writer and editor focused on post-secondary education and training. He has a Master of Journalism from the University of British Columbia and a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Guelph.