Is Alberta Serious About Separating?

Shortly after Mark Carney was elected in late April, Alberta’s UCP party—led by Premier Danielle Smith—passed legislation that lowered the threshold for Albertans to trigger a referendum on whether the province should stay in Canada or secede. The following month, Smith doubled down, throwing her support behind a 2026 referendum should citizens gather enough signatures. It’s clear that the idea of a sovereign Alberta has gone mainstream, but is the province just threatening to leave Canada for leverage over Ottawa or genuinely on the path to achieving it? And what would happen if it did? 

Eric Adams, a law professor and constitutional scholar at the University of Alberta, says that the current intensity of the separatist chatter in some parts of the province feels unprecedented. He spoke to Maclean’s about Alberta’s latest push for autonomy: what’s real, what’s theatre and what could come next. 

This spring, Danielle Smith said she’s willing to hold a referendum as a way to explore economic and constitutional protections from the federal government. Is it fair to say she’s a separatist?

Not in the traditional sense. From the outset of her leadership campaign, Smith articulated a different vision for Alberta’s place in Confederation—one that’s more autonomous, more assertive and more willing to challenge the federal government head-on. She’s made it clear that she wants Alberta to remain in Canada, but she’s also said that if Albertans vote in favour of independence in a referendum, she’ll take that seriously. She may not be leading a charge for separation like the Bloc Québécois, but she is willing to see where the public wants to go.

Why is the secession discussion coming up now?

The Alberta government just introduced legislation to significantly lower the threshold required to trigger a provincial referendum. Under the new rules, a vote could proceed with signatures from just 10 per cent of eligible voters—down from 20 per cent of all registered voters. Plus, organizers would have 120 days instead of 90 to gather support. That change came shortly after Mark Carney’s victory, and it feels like a reaction against yet another Liberal federal government with a similar cabinet. There’s a feeling, especially among conservatives, that Alberta has been sidelined federally. 

Alberta rarely holds more than one or two seats in cabinet, and the key portfolios don’t go to them. Add to that the frustrations over cancelled infrastructure projects, especially oil pipelines, and the growing tension between energy production and environmental regulation. The argument from many in this province is: we should keep drilling and let future technologies solve the emissions problem. Practically speaking, those philosophical differences between the federal and provincial governments makes a referendum almost inevitable. 

Who in your province actually supports the idea of separating from Canada?

Right now, support is strongest in southern Alberta, especially in rural communities. That’s where the pro-independence movement is most energized. In Calgary and Edmonton, the enthusiasm is much more muted. The large influx of newcomers to both cities in the last decade—many of them from elsewhere in Canada—leads to a wide array of political viewpoints, whereas the rural parts of the province track more conservative. Even so, across the province, support for separation hasn’t crossed the crucial 50 per cent threshold. Polls suggest it hovers in the low 30s—and has for years. So the intensity of support among believers has gone up, but the overall number of supporters has not.

If that’s the case, how likely do you think Alberta’s secession is, really?

Constitutions evolve and countries change, but the bar for something that dramatic is high. That said, referendums can create their own political energy; Brexit was a great example of that. I think this province’s push loses steam when people realize that there’s a fundamental contradiction in the logic of Alberta’s separation. One of the core complaints among Alberta separatists is a lack of access to markets for oil and gas. I don’t know how becoming a landlocked nation without federal infrastructure or diplomatic power would make trading our natural resources any easier.

In many ways, this is all a strategic play. There’s a broader belief in Alberta that Quebec has long played its hand well by asserting a strong vision of independence, which gained it concessions from the federal government. Some Albertans want to replicate that approach. Political logic is also at play here: the separatist sentiment exists entirely within the UCP’s support base. If Smith dismisses it, she risks splitting the party, which is what happened with the Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives, which helped the NDP win power in 2015. By giving separatists an outlet, Smith can keep them inside her tent.

As a thought experiment, can you tell me what would happen if a referendum did pass?

Even a successful referendum doesn’t automatically change Alberta’s provincial status. It would be a symbolic signal of intent, not a legal act. Then the real chaos would begin: would Alberta declare itself independent? Would Ottawa engage in negotiations? Would Alberta still hold its share of the national debt? Would it have to develop its own military? Would Albertans still get to participate in the Canada Pension Plan? What about the national parks and the RCMP? Would First Nations, who have treaties with the Crown, even recognize an independent Alberta? The legal and constitutional fallout could be immense. There’s no clear answer for any of it, because we have no precedent for this in Canada. 

That said, our history is filled with close calls. Quebec had its own push for independence in the latter part of the 20th century; they came within an eyelash of a successful independence in 1995. Long before that, many Nova Scotians wanted to leave Confederation almost immediately after it formed and continue to exist as an independent colony. These tensions will always shape a nation as large and diverse as Canada. 

How could our southern neighbours factor into all of this?

That’s another wild card. A new, resource-rich, militarily undefended country appearing on the U.S. border? That wouldn’t go unnoticed. The Americans might move to recognize Alberta’s sovereignty quickly and try to land a trading partner that would help quell their daily oil deficit. They might also take steps to prevent adversaries like Russia or China from gaining influence. There could be geopolitical consequences we can’t yet predict.  

How do you see the separatism conversation progressing in the next year or two?

We’re heading into a period of political instability, particularly between Alberta and the federal government. If a referendum goes ahead, we’ll see a heated campaign full of claims and counterclaims about Alberta’s future, many of which will be speculative or outright misleading. Crucially, it’ll consume political oxygen and distract from pressing issues like health care, trade, climate and economic diversification. If the referendum fails, as polling suggests it likely will, that could weaken Alberta’s negotiating position. Ottawa may conclude that it doesn’t need to take Alberta’s threats seriously. This whole maneuver is a gamble that could backfire. 

So the Canadian family isn’t at risk of breaking up anytime soon?

I don’t think so, but the conversation itself matters. When regional alienation festers, it can distort our national unity. Reactions to separatist talk in Alberta across Canada is likely to generate a host of reactions: indifference, sympathy, hostility and everything in between. The way Canadians respond to Alberta now may shape how strong this country will be a generation from now.