’In the medium term’

The prepared text of Jim Flaherty’s speech in Fredericton is here. The economic update is here.

With the latest "adjustment for risk," the Harper government projects a small deficit in 2015-2016 and a return to surplus in 2016-2017.

The return-to-surplus has been something of a moving target over the years. In March 2011, the Harper government announced that it would return the federal books to balance in the 2015-2016 fiscal year. Seventeen days later, by then in an election campaign, the Conservatives promised to return to balance in 2014-2015. Seven months to the day after that, the Harper government decided it couldn’t fulfill April’s promise and went back to March’s projection.

The Globe notes that this year’s deficit is now projected to be $7 billion larger than expected.