The new 338-seat reality

Preparing for 30 new seats to fill
The Peace Tower is seen in Ottawa, Friday September 25, 2009. Adrian Wyld/TCPI/The Canadian Press

Mitch Wexler has updated his maps to apply the 2011 election result to the latest proposed boundaries for 2015. In the latest version, the Conservatives gain 23 seats, the New Democrats gain five and the Liberals gain two.

Wexler talks to Susan Delacourt about what to make (and what not to make) of all this.

Wexler says this is the product of plain arithmetic and not some political tilt to the redrawing. “The reason that the Conservatives pick up the most seats is because by pure math, when you add districts the party with the most seats will end up with more,” he said.

Nor should anyone be viewing this data as a prediction. In fact, Wexler notes, the 30 new seats, many in areas of high population growth, could make the next election volatile. “Most of the new seats will be (won) by narrower margins, so a swing in the election simply swings more seats,” he says.

Saskatchewan remains an interesting case. If the 2015 boundaries are applied to the 2011 results, the New Democrats finish two points behind in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River (about 300 votes closer than they were in 2011), 1.6 percentage points ahead in the new riding of Regina-Lewvan and nine points ahead in new riding of Saskatoon West.