Who Stands to Win in Poilievre’s Canada: The West
Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre both spent their formative years in Alberta, but only one is unmistakably a true-blue western Canadian. Poilievre was a child in Calgary during the 1980s, when Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program tanked the provincial economy and infuriated resource-rich Albertans. He came of political age as a teenager in the 1990s, when he got involved with the upstart Reform Party. Ever since, his personal politics have been infused with Western Canada’s pugilistic approach to Ottawa—the current Conservative Party’s policy declaration, adopted in 2023, speaks of “the need to alleviate the alienation felt by the citizens of the West.”
Poilievre has been an Ottawa MP for more than 20 years, but he is culturally and politically at home in the West. With him in power, the region’s most conservative governments, in Alberta and Saskatchewan, will enjoy an easier relationship with Ottawa. Many of Poilievre’s stances—such as his opposition to gender-affirming care for young people and support for mandatory treatment for drug users—mirror those of premiers Danielle Smith and Scott Moe.
And whereas the Trudeau government attempted to balance resource expansion with environmental regulation, Poilievre is a full-throated supporter of oil and gas. That will be welcome as the economic fortunes of Western provincial governments slip. In early March, the Alberta government released a budget showing a $5.2-billion budget deficit in 2025-26.
Most importantly, Poilievre is big on provincial jurisdiction and skeptical about federal overreach, which goes down easy in a region where politics are largely defined by grievances toward Eastern Canada. In 2022, Poilievre promised that provinces wouldn’t have to resort to efforts like Alberta’s Sovereignty Act, which was a legislative middle finger to Ottawa that gave the province constitutionally dubious powers to disregard federal laws.
A Poilievre government will elevate the agendas of Western premiers. But that may present a conundrum for leaders like Smith and Moe, who have staked their electoral appeal on a combative relationship to the federal government. Poilievre will also have to balance Western interests with those of the entire nation. There are signs that he recognizes the tension. Smith and Moe have long demanded reform of the equalization system, which transfers federal funds to provinces based on their ability to generate revenue. In January, Poilievre said he wouldn’t make “big changes” to the program, dismaying hardline Western patriots.
Things could also change if the Alberta NDP win 2027’s provincial election, and a left-leaning government in Edmonton faces a conservative one in Ottawa. “The West Wants In” was the Reform Party’s 1980s slogan. Poilievre could make it happen—unless the traditional east-west animosities get flipped.
