Can Trumpugees Move to Canada?

Twenty-four hours after Donald Trump won the American election, Google searches for “move to Canada” had spiked by more than 5,000 per cent. The interest was nothing new: plenty of Americans tweeted their intentions to head north in 2016. But this time they want to make good. Ryan Rosenberg is a Vancouver-based immigration lawyer who recently launched Trumpugees.ca to manage the post-election influx of inquiries. Here he talks to Maclean’s about the biggest challenges around moving, how Canada’s recent immigration crackdown factors in and why, regardless of who’s in the White House, super-rich Americans are probably going to stay put. 

Where did the idea for Trumpugees.ca come from? 

I’ve been practising immigration law in Canada since 2003, so my first U.S. election cycle was George W. Bush’s second term. Back then we got a bunch of calls from blue-state Americans who were concerned about the direction their country was going in after 9/11 and the war in Iraq and looking to Canada as an option. There was a funny email floating around about “Bush-u-gees:” academics and Hollywood types sneaking across the border in their Volvo station wagons with Napa Valley reds in their trunks. And then in the Obama era, we got inquiries from the libertarian crowd—people who thought Canada could help them escape high taxation, socialized health care and gun control.

Um, have they met Canada? 

I spoke at a conference in Scottsdale back then in 2008 called Escape From America. High-net-worth Americans were being offered passports from all sorts of countries, and I was representing Canada. Let’s just say I wasn’t very popular. 

I’m guessing Trump’s election in 2016 was a game-changer.

It was. Even before that, when Trump was vying to be the Republican nominee in 2015, I bought the Trumpugees.ca domain name. After that election, we got a lot of inquiries from Americans—many visible minorities, particularly after Trump announced his Muslim travel ban in 2017. I didn’t launch the Trumpugees website back then. I was busy and it was harder to do. But then on the Wednesday morning after the election this month, I bought the domain name again. GoDaddy has a lot of new AI tools, so I was able to put together a website in an hour. 

And how does it work exactly? 

It’s pretty simple. There’s a one-pager with information about the different categories under which Americans can come to Canada, plus a little bit about applying for work visas and Canadian real estate. We have a Contact Us page where people can send us their information to set up a consultation, and that’s when we can look at their individual cases and determine the most viable route, if there is one. From there we prepare, submit and manage applications, which is what I spend a lot of my time on. 

How are the inquiries you’re getting today different from Trump’s first win? 

The volume of requests is much higher. For the first couple of weeks after the election, it was three or four an hour round the clock. Trump has moved much farther right on the political spectrum since 2016, which has broadened the playing field in terms of people looking to escape his second term. We have received inquiries from people on the far left, as well as from Republicans who are still left of Trump. There are U.S.-based companies interested in shoring up their Canadian operations to give their employees an opportunity to work here. That’s mostly in tech—video games and software development companies. And then we’re also hearing from Americans who are already living in Canada and are now worried about what a Trump presidency might mean for their permanent residency applications. We’re calling those people sur place Trumpugees.

What do you tell them? 

This particular group is in reasonably good shape. They have Canadian work experience and Canadian employers, both of which give them a leg up on the path to permanent residency. We know that the immigration minister has announced plans to draw 40 per cent of new permanent residents from people already in Canada. 

What about the Americans who are still home and trying to figure out how to come here? What’s step one?  

Step one is to manage your expectations and understand that Canada is not just yours to show up in. We see an incredible sense of entitlement from a lot of Americans. We have a lot of processes in Canada. Things take time, and even then not everyone is going to qualify, particularly with the Trumpugees. Usually people contact us when they already have a work opportunity and they are asking us to help facilitate the visa, whereas this particular group just wants to come here. Only about 10 per cent are able to successfully immigrate.

What are the most important factors to determine eligibility? 

For most people, unless you happen to have a Canadian spouse or common-law partner, the easiest way to come here is as a temporary resident on a work permit. These fall into two buckets: the Temporary Foreign Workers Program is designed to fill labour shortages here in Canada, so it covers sectors like agriculture, caregiving and skilled trades. An employer looking to hire a foreign national through this channel has to complete a Labour Market Impact Assessment, in which they have to demonstrate that they tried to hire within Canada first. There is also the International Mobility Program, which was negotiated under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (formerly NAFTA). It’s a list of more than 60 professional designations—including accountants, lawyers and engineers—who are allowed to move and work in Canada and do not require the same labour test.

But you still need to have a job here before moving?

Yes, in most cases you need to show documentation of a job offer and proof of the LMIA if that applies. 

For how long can a person come here on a temporary work permit?

Generally speaking, temporary work permits are for three years regardless of the employment program. They can be renewed, but after three years you may also be eligible to become a permanent resident of Canada. This is based on a points system. If you have spent time working in Canada, that is going to work in your favour. Points are awarded based on factors like language proficiency in English or French, age, education and work experience. 

Is there an ideal age range? 

People under 30 get the most points, and then there is a significant drop-off after 45. 

Does that mean retirees aren’t desirable?

Not really. I’ve definitely had some conversations with people who are retired, in their 70s, have a net worth of $800,000 and want to move to New Brunswick. Usually in these cases we have to tell them that it’s not going to work out. That said, retirees are free to come here from the States for six months—sort of like reverse snowbirds. 

Are there points awarded for wealth? 

Not really. In my experience, the ultra-high-net-worth crowd will typically shy away from any notion of coming here when they see Canada’s tax bills—particularly if they are coming from a state with low or no income tax, like Florida, Texas and Nevada. I like to say that American patriotism is protected by the pocketbook, meaning the tax delta between the two countries. That, as well as some of the tax consequences of expatriation, causes most wealthy Americans to stay put.

The federal government recently announced plans to slash immigration numbers by 20 per cent over the next three years. What does that mean for Americans trying to come here?

It’s not good news, in the sense that the competition will be more intense. The TFW program has set up higher hurdles in recent weeks that will limit a company’s ability to hire foreign workers, mostly just by making it more expensive. It’s not bad news across the board, though. People who work in high-demand labour categories—which currently include health care, STEM occupations and agriculture—might even qualify for the Express Entry program. If you’re a software engineer in Silicon Valley or in Washington and you want to be a programmer for a Canadian company, you’re probably going to be okay.

What about Americans who work remotely? Could you not just pack your laptop and head north? 

It depends on your circumstances. Generally speaking you can come here as a visitor for six months, and if you don’t work for a Canadian company or freelance for Canadian clients, then you can do your work. If your product is delivered in Canada, or for a company with a Canadian operation, then you might need a work permit. You just have to be careful not to accidentally cross that line. This idea of a digital nomadism was something we talked a lot about during the pandemic. The immigration department seemed really interested for a while, but it hasn’t created a facilitative policy.

What might facilitative policy look like in order for Canada to welcome more digital nomads? 

Canada Border Services could have a permit that measures a person’s ability to economically sustain themselves in Canada while working for a company that doesn’t operate in Canada—basically just to prove that they don’t need to engage in our labour market. If I were minister for a day, that’s what I would create.  

Following Trump’s Muslim ban in 2017, Justin Trudeau famously tweeted, “To those fleeing persecution, terror and war, Canadians will welcome you.” Now we’re talking about beefing up border security in the lead-up to Trump’s planned mass deportation. Is this bad news for people in America who might want to come here as refugees?

At this point we haven’t seen any policy changes, so we’ll have to see what happens. Timing could be an issue, as Canada currently has a significant backlog in terms of refugee claims, many of them coming from students who are here on temporary visas. The issue is whether these claims are legitimate or whether they are a last-ditch effort from people who won’t be able to stay otherwise. These claims can buy a person years in Canada while their case is being adjudicated, so the result can be positive. But it’s based on making a false claim.  

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.