How to lose a counter-insurgency: stop protecting the people

From today’s National Post, about a ‘drawback’ of Canadian troops and the dismantling of an armed outpost in Taliban-controlled territory:

Canadian officers say that after living beside coalition forces for two years, villagers may find themselves in harm’s way. They could face reprisals from insurgents. ‘There is a concern,” said Major Stephane Briand, operations planning officer for the Canadian Forces battle group in Kandahar.'”          

How likely do you figure it is that other Afghans in the area will trust Canadian soldiers not to abandon them in the future? How likely is it that those same villagers will reason that it’s in their best interests to support the Taliban?