Liberals in Quebec: Always look on the bright side

James Curran, who as of yesterday was days away from giving up on the federal Liberal party, still has enough fight in him to argue that this morning’s CROP poll is not bad news for the Liberals in Quebec. And indeed it is so, sort of: a quick look at the riding-by-riding results in Quebec from 2006 suggests that if the NDP vote doubles and the Conservative vote increases noticeably, while the Liberal vote holds steady, no sitting Liberal MP is in danger of losing his seat. Indeed, the Liberals stand to pick up a few seats (say, Ahuntsic) — about as many as the Tories pick up (say, Gaspésie). So there is no danger the Quebec returns will result in the Liberals being replaced as Official Opposition by anyone. Not by the New Democrats, and not by the Conservatives.

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