Canada’s job market still shows weakness below the surface
Econo-metrics: Wage growth may finally be improving, but the Bank of Canada will need to see a lot more of that before it raises rates again
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Kevin Carmichael
Kevin Carmichael is a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation. He has written about economics, policy and policy makers for two decades from Ottawa, Washington, Mumbai, and, currently, Montreal.
That was probably it for interest rate hikes in Canada for a while
For all the complaints that Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz has a communication problem, the Bank sent clear signals that it will probably take a break from raising rates
New Canadian trade data complicates NAFTA negotiations
Econo-metrics: The July trade report also serves as a cautionary tale of what life could be like without NAFTA, as exports to the U.S. and Mexico suffered significantly
Why a September interest rate hike makes sense
If the Bank of Canada’s decisions on rate increases are truly data dependent, Canadians should prepare for another this week
Canada’s economy is really overachieving right now
Econ-o-metric: GDP soars 4.5% in second quarter, boosting interest rate hike expectations further
Oil exports drive Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S.
Econ-o-metric: Canadian arguments about balanced trade with the U.S. don’t matter to Trump. His NAFTA logic says deficits are for losers, full stop.
How Bill Morneau found himself at war with small business
The finance minister’s call for tax feedback unleashes vocal pushback from incensed lobbyists and political opponents
After weathering the Great Recession, can Canada avoid a debt crisis?
When central bankers dropped interest rates during the financial crisis, finance ministers leaned too hard on household debt. That trend may finally be changing.
Inflation’s a good story. Except for beer prices.
Econ-o-metrics: Don’t make too much of one month of slightly hotter inflation, but the trend bolsters Bank of Canada’s outlook
A NAFTA ’tweak’? Dream on.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer couldn’t find too many redeeming qualities of the trade deal on the books. Watch for tough negotiations to follow.