A hypothetical legislature

Last month there was some speculation that once this year’s round of elections was complete, Conservatives (of various partisan affiliations) might occupy more than half of all federal and provincial seats in the country.

Because of regional differences—especially in Quebec—this math is pretty subjective, but here’s one attempt to tally the standings with only Saskatchewan left to vote.

First, remove the Nunavut and Northwest Territories legislatures from the equation because they do not operate on the party system. Second, consider the Saskatchewan Party, the Yukon Party, the Wild Rose Alliance and the Action democratique du Quebec as Conservative parties. Third, consider Quebec solidaire as the closest thing Quebec has to a provincial NDP.

That leaves two provincial parties—the British Columbia Liberals and the Quebec Liberals—to be classified. Neither are formally affiliated with the federal Liberal party and both draw from the centre-left and centre-right. For the sake of argument, let’s split their seats between the Liberals and the Conservatives (24 and 33 to the former, 24 and 32 to the latter).

Add all that to the more straightforward affiliations and I get the following at the provincial level.

Conservatives 327
Liberals 176
New Democrats 153
Other 58
Vacancies 1

Add the federal numbers and I get the following overall.

Conservatives 493
New Democrats 255
Liberals 210
Other 63
Vacancies 2

With 1,023 seats overall, the Conservatives remain 19 seats short of a majority in this back-of-napkin legislature.