EKOS Weekly: Zoooooooooom! (Thud.)(39.7/25.7/15.2/9.7/38.7)

October 8, 2009

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Hey Liberals! Aren’t you glad you weren’t actually able to bring down the government last week? And Tories -- oh, come on, admit it: that ’nobody wants another election’ talking point has to be starting to stick in your craw right about now. Not only are you firmly planted in just-possibly-depending-how-the-splits-go majority territory, but the Liberals have managed to drop below their 2008 election day support, which up until now was widely thought to be the absolute floor.

So, if you were sitting around the OLO conference room, trying to avoid making eye contact with Ian Davey and wondering if there’s any precedent for senior strategists crossing the floor, what part of today’s EKOS report would you find the most worrying -- other than, you know, the numbers?

Here’s a suggestion: for the first time in more than two years, you’re not only trailing the Conservatives in Quebec -- yes, it took a while to work through the system, but that much anticipated plunge finally seems to have happened -- but in Atlantic Canada as well. Atlantic Canada! That was your one remaining beachhead of stubborn support!

Really, how on earth can you possibly have managed to alienate Canadians so consistently from coast to coast to coast? It’s actually kind of staggering when you think about it, although I’m sure that any number of commenters will be along to explain, in excruciating detail, exactly what has gone so terribly, horribly wrong. (The various leaders’ approval numbers, which are also included in today’s findings, should provide ample fodder for that particular debate.)

The pattern is actually fairly consistent across the regions: the Conservatives are up by three and change, the Liberals are down by roughly the same, and the NDP are holding steady: in fact, they’re even back on the rise out east, although the anti-HST crusade doesn’t seem to be doing much to move the ball forward in British Columbia or Ontario.

338Canada: A tale of two premiers

Philippe J. Fournier: A few years ago, Francois Legault and Jason Kenney were making history. Today, only one of them is sure to survive their next election.

The federal budget is a mixed bag

Politics Insider for Apr. 8: the Liberal’s plans, unpacked; the Liberal-NDP deal bears fruit; behind the scenes of the Bay du Nord oil megaproject

Anyway, without further ado -- the national numbers, with a margin of error of 1.8 percent (NOT THAT IT MATTERS AT THIS POINT SERIOUSLY YOU GUYS):

Conservatives: 39.7 (+3.7)
Liberals: 25.7 (-4.0)
NDP: 15.2 (+1.3)
Green: 9.7 (-0.8)
Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 38.7 (-0.9)

The regional breakdowns:

British Columbia (MoE 5.92)Conservatives: 41.6 (+4.2)
Liberals: 22.2 (-3.0)
NDP: 23.5 (+0.2)
Green: 12.7 (+1.6)
Alberta (MoE 6.71) Conservatives: 61.0 (-2.1)
Liberals: 13.5 (-2.5)
NDP: 13.0 (+3.0)
Green: 12.5 (+1.7)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 6.86) Conservatives: 51.6 (+2.8)
Liberals: 22.7 (-3.5)
NDP: 18.4 (-1.6)
Green: 7.2 (+2.2)
Ontario (MoE 2.89) Conservatives: 43.8 (+3.8)
Liberals: 32.5 (-3.2)
NDP: 13.9 (+0.5)
Green: 9.7 (-1.1)
Quebec (MoE 3.48) Bloc Quebecois: 38.7 (-0.9)
Conservatives: 22.2 (+5.6)
Liberals: 21.0 (-5.4)
NDP: 9.7 (+1.5)
Green: 8.4 (-0.8)
Atlantic Canada (MoE 6.95) Conservatives: 34.8 (+5.1)
Liberals: 32.4 (-8.3)
NDP: 26.2 (+7.3)
Green: 6.6 (-5.1)

.... and finally, the cities:

Vancouver (MoE 10.22) Conservatives: 44.9 (+2.7)
Liberals: 25.8 (-0.7)
NDP: 18.2 (-2.5)
Green: 11.1 (-1.4)

Calgary (MoE 12.45) Conservatives: 48.1 (-13.9)
Liberals: 22.7 (+3.1)
NDP: 10.0 (+6.7)
Green: 19.1 (+4.1)
Toronto (MoE 5.59) Conservatives: 44.8 (+5.7)
Liberals: 35.6 (-7.7)
NDP: 10.3 (-0.9)
Green: 9.4 (+2.0)
Ottawa (MoE 8.00) Conservatives: 45.8 (+2.4)
Liberals: 36.0 (-3.3)
NDP: 9.5 (-0.5)
Green: 8.6 (+1.4)
Montreal (MoE 5.35) Bloc Quebecois: 37.2 (+2.7)
Conservatives: 19.8 (+5.6)
Liberals: 24.4 (-7.3)
NDP: 8.5 (+1.2)
Green: 10.2 (-2.1)