The farce and the math

If you heard the Prime Minister yesterday, you might have been left with the impression that the NDP’s 2011 commitment to cap-and-trade was expected to immediately raise $21 billion in revenue for the federal government. In fact, the costing document that accompanied the NDP’s 2011 platform—or at least the copy that is available here—doesn’t, technically, include that number.

The NDP projected "cap and trade revenues by year" as $3.6 billion for 2011-2012, $4.3 billion for 2012-2013, $6.2 billion for 2013-2014 and $7.4 billion for 2014-2015. If you add those numbers together, you get $21.5 billion. This might seem a small distinction, but it is probably a distinction worth noting.

(The NDP also listed 17 "green initiatives" as expenses. If you, as they did, reduce those expenses from the revenue generated by cap-and-trade, you get "green initiative" surpluses of $115 million, $15 million, $15 million and $1.165 billion, or $1.31 billion over four years.)

Here again is the rough guide to the Consevatives’ carbon tax farce.

And here again is why the "revenue" argument is a red herring.