The futures market

Alice Funke considers the possible predictive value of yesterday’s NDP fundraising numbers.

If the 2003 NDP leadership race is anything to go by, a candidate’s share of the overall funds being raised for the contest could predict his or her first ballot vote-share to within 1.5 percentage points … That being the case, roughly half-way through the 2011-2012 NDP leadership race, Brian Topp and Thomas Mulcair are leading the pack. With 23.6% and 20.4% of the total take respectively, the two early front-runners represent 44% of all the funds raised to December 31, 2011 between them.

Peggy Nash, Paul Dewar and Nathan Cullen are behind with 15.1%, 13.1% and 12.0% (representing another 40% of all the leadership fundraising to the end of 2011), while the other four registered candidates trail below 7%.

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