Canadian Snowbirds Are Giving Up on the U.S.

There’s an old joke that says Canadians have been coming to vacation in Phoenix since the invention of air conditioning. In reality, the Canadian tourism boom began in the early 2000s. Many of these vacationers came from Alberta, looking for a nearby respite from the freezing prairie winters. I was working in Calgary real estate in 2008 when the American housing market crashed and the U.S. dollar took a nosedive, which suddenly made houses in Phoenix reasonably affordable for Canadians. I was a dual Canadian and American citizen, and it seemed like a perfect time for me to reinvent my real estate career to cater to Canadian vacationers. Calgary’s real estate market has always been boom or bust, depending on the oil and gas sector. I wanted something more stable. So I relocated to the Greater Phoenix Area, where my wife, Carol, soon joined me. I’m in Arizona most of the year to help Canadian snowbirds and investors shop for property in the area, while Carol looks after our clients in Alberta. 

In the years I’ve been in Phoenix, the market has only ever surged as more and more snowbirds came shopping for a winter roost. Before the pandemic, nearly a million Canadians were visiting Arizona every year, filling up restaurants, hotels and golf courses and supporting a booming local tourism industry. In 2022, it generated almost 180,000 jobs, plus 120,000 more in related industries like restaurants and supply stores. Canadians return to the same places year after year. Many of my closest friends in Phoenix are still Canadians who come up each winter; I helped many of them buy their homes here. There are over 100,000 Canadians with short- or long-term residences in Arizona—we make up the largest share of the state’s international property owners. Every January for the last decade and a half, like clockwork, I’ve had a steady stream of Canadians contacting me, all looking to buy in the Greater Phoenix Area.

This year, I’m busier than ever, but for the first time it’s not with buyers. Now, the majority of my clients are Canadians selling their properties and abandoning their stateside vacations because of the rising tension between the U.S. and Canada. As Donald Trump continues to talk about Canada becoming the 51st state, disillusioned snowbirds are seeking new places to spend their winters, leaving Phoenix in the dust.

Trump was already musing about annexing Canada within a day of his inauguration, but by then many snowbirds had already made the trek south for the winter. Things have only gotten more tense. No matter how you feel about Justin Trudeau, hearing him called Canada’s governor will get your hackles up. It didn’t sit right with me or many of my clients to be told that Canadians are a threat to the American border, when so many of us have been crossing peacefully to the States every winter for decades.

As things heated up, I’ve heard several stories of people experiencing anti-Canadian sentiments while in the States—something that seemed laughable a few months ago. Friends of mine recently left a Phoenix restaurant after a meal to find that their car had been keyed in the parking lot because of its Alberta licence plates. Other Canadians I know were told to “go back north” by Trump supporters. One of my clients who was down south to sell her property even covered her Canadian licence plates when she parked to deter the type of vandalism she’d heard about from fellow Canadians. For a lot of vacationers, this has felt like a betrayal and a drastic shift from the usually welcoming environment they’ve enjoyed for years. Normally, I handle five or six buyers at a time. This year, I was run off my feet with 16 Canadian sellers at once—a first in my 27 years in real estate. 

It’s not just the odd unpleasant encounter that has people worried. My phone has been ringing off the hook all winter with concerned Canadians looking to sell their properties before the situation starts to cost them money. They’re worried that Trump might crack down on foreign property owners with new taxes amid the flurry of tariffs, or that the fluctuating U.S. dollar could mean they miss out on profits when they sell. Others are concerned about border crossings as horror stories emerge about Canadians getting turned away or detained. There are lots of Canadians in Phoenix who are waiting it out, either for a few months to see if the tension blows over, or for four years and the end of Trump’s term. But many have decided to leave outright. Some called it quits when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced that foreign nationals entering the country for more than 30 days would have to be fingerprinted at the border.

The U.S. government has since clarified that the new rule would not include Canadians, but for many people I know, even the threat of fingerprinting was a bridge too far. Places across Mexico, the Caribbean and Europe are all seeing travel booms as people avoid the States. Close friends of mine have been coming to Phoenix each winter for nearly 20 years. I just helped them close the sale on their house here; they’ve already booked a place to stay in Mexico next year. No matter how things turn out between Trump and Canada, they’re not interested in coming back. I’ll be missing a lot of my Canadian friends here next winter, and I know I’m not the only Canadian who’ll mourn the fracturing of our expat community. 

Despite the sentiments from some Trump supporters that they don’t need Canadians here, the fleeing snowbirds are leaving an economic void. Canadians spent over US$20 billion while travelling in the States in 2024 and close to $2.5 billion in Arizona alone once you count real estate taxes. Restaurants in Phoenix are usually bumping all winter long with hungry snowbirds. By the end of this winter though, dining rooms were noticeably emptier. The area’s 200-plus golf courses, which are a big draw for northerners, have felt the decline as well. All the usual tourist economies, including sports and entertainment, are missing out as Canadian visitors to the U.S. have dropped over 30 per cent. The population dip can really be felt in neighbourhoods that have extremely high concentrations of Canadian retirees. I’ve heard from lots of business owners—restaurateurs, pool-maintenance workers, gardeners—that they’re already feeling the loss of the snowbirds. The numbers could be even worse next year too, since many Canadians who were already in the U.S. or had trips booked when the political tensions started have vowed not to return next year.

For all the posturing of the Trump fans, many other Americans seem to be taking note of the money drain. Over the last few winters, Carol and I have made our Phoenix home available to Canadian friends and headed to an RV golf resort in the north end of Phoenix. It is usually full with people from all over the U.S. and Canada, but this year many of the lots usually filled by Canucks remained empty. It got emptier as the season went on as many more decided to cut their trips off early. As word got around the park about our Canadian roots, we were approached by American campers on at least a dozen occasions. They each came to engage in a great Canadian tradition: apologizing. Over and over they expressed dismay and shame: “It’s not us, it’s him,” they’d say. Even steadfast Republicans showed remorse for the president’s behaviour. Some were embarrassed that they’d voted for him, or upset because this was not what they’d voted for. It saddened them to see their neighbours treated this way. We could only agree.

As a proud Canadian living in the States, it’s upsetting to see a relationship that has been so mutually beneficial deteriorate like this. Canadian vacationers in Arizona get to dodge the frigid winters with a home away from home, and the Valley gets a welcome winter tourism bump. But when Canadians no longer feel welcome, or even safe, I can’t blame them for cashing out and looking for other options. Personally, I’m going to ride it out in Phoenix for the next four years. I can only hope that our community of snowbirds who have helped make this place feel like home will eventually come back so we can rebuild what we’ve lost.

—As told to Charlie Wagner-Chazalon