By-Elections

The final numbers on a good night for the Liberals

Paul Wells on margins and vote swings

No party will admit defeat after this evening’s votes

Paul Wells on by-elections, expectations and ballot-box mojo

Four days away from four by-elections

Checking in on the Toronto Centre and Bourassa by-elections

In a release this morning, the Prime Minister announced byelections in Victoria, Calgary Centre and Durham. (A fourth byelection could be necessitated by the Supreme Court’s ruling on Etobicoke Centre this Thursday.) Bob Rae thinks the Prime Minister should’ve waited for the Supreme Court and added Labrador (Peter Penashue’s riding).

From the Prime Minister’s remarks to the Conservative caucus this morning, a slight adjustment to yesterday’s line.

Beyond the inevitable and inescapable scrutiny of the supposed defining traits of the party leaders, what will the next federal election be about? In the wake of yesterday’s by-elections, here’s what a key Conservative cabinet minister and the official Opposition leader had to say on the matter.

Keeping in mind Facebook’s predictive powers, the current tallies show the Liberals ahead in Vaughan, the NDP up in Winnipeg-North and the NDP leading in Dauphin. That last one would likely count as a shock.

Michael Ignatieff’s official response to last night’s results.

It doesn’t help to parse these things too closely, although Brian Topp remains a champion on that front. By-elections could hardly be less of a fair real-world test of everyone’s fighting strength in a general. Local personalities, issues and tactics play a huge role. Still, the easiest thing in the world to do during one of these things is to vote against a government, to “send Harper a lesson.” Instead, the ridings that voted last night sent him reinforcements. Cumberland is essentially meaningless; a Tory riding returns a Tory, the Tory rebel having departed. The eastern Quebec riding, though, is a horse of a different colour.