Why Voter Distrust is Brewing
For many Canadians, this election feels like an existential moment. Depending on your point of view, you might think Canada is genuinely threatened by Trump’s annexation talk, and Mark Carney is the only person equipped to protect the nation. Others might believe that re-electing the Liberals after 10 years will send the country into a downward spiral. With the stakes this high, anxieties about the election process itself can grow. On Monday, when the majority of voting Canadians head to the polls to elect our next government, I worry that fears of a stolen election will surge.
I live in Vancouver, and that’s exactly what happened during British Columbia’s provincial election last fall. On October 19, the final day of voting, British Columbians had no idea whether David Eby’s NDP would stay in government or if the province would take a sharp right turn under John Rustad’s Conservative Party.
That morning, as the polls opened, heavy rains swept the Lower Mainland. Rumours of election manipulation swirled online. Some social media accounts alleged that the NDP government had engaged in “cloud-seeding,” a rain-inducing weather modification technique, in order to depress voter turnout. Other accounts claimed that “voting machines” would undercount Conservative votes.
When polls closed, the initial results were too close to call. Conspiracists began to allege that the election had been stolen. Then, in early November, Elections BC revealed that it had accidentally failed to count a box with several hundred ballots, sparking legitimate concerns as well as half-baked conspiracies. The error was soon rectified: all ballots were tallied, and there were judicial recounts in the three closest ridings. In the end, the NDP stayed in power. However, distrust persisted online.
The narratives we saw during the B.C. election echoed trends in the U.S. In 2020, many Republicans came to believe that voting machines helped the Democrats “steal” the election, while conspiracists alleged that, in the lead-up to America’s November 2024 election, the Biden administration had directed hurricanes to hit red districts. Rampant claims of stolen elections have contributed to a sense of democratic fragility.
Given the warning signs in B.C.’s election, I teamed up with my colleagues at the University of British Columbia to investigate, in real time, any election fraud allegations emerging during Canada’s 2025 federal election. We partnered with the McGill University–based Canadian Digital Media Research Network. Since the campaign began in March, the CDMRN has conducted polls and analyzed social media, following up on reports of misleading information they got from the public via their Digital Threats Tipline. My colleagues Nistha Gupta, Grace Lim and Mahnan Omar have spent long hours online, examining thousands of pieces of content that might be encountered by conservative, centrist or progressive social media users.
Our research suggests that narratives of election manipulation are on the rise in Canada. We sort these into three rough categories: misinformation about our voting process, foreign interference fears and broader criticisms of our democratic system. The first should be outright debunked, the second deserves attention and the third warrants public discussion.
The first category includes perennial myths of widespread voter-card theft and fraudulent votes by partisans or non-citizens. We’ve also spotted allegations that Elections Canada and the Liberals are rigging the election, and the only way that the Liberals will win is by fraud. In recent weeks, many pro-Conservative accounts have instructed people to bring their own pens to vote, suggesting that if voters use the pencils provided at polling stations, election workers might take ballot boxes home and change votes before the final count.
News organizations and Elections Canada have been quick to discredit these claims. Other social media users help with debunking too. For example, a post on X suggested that Elections Canada is biased toward the Liberals and questioned whether there is any oversight over how they count votes. Fortunately, a flurry of replies explained that all vote counting is overseen by independent scrutineers. Still, when fraud allegations circulate, they can weave together into an inaccurate narrative that people persistently believe—even if individual strands are disproven.
While Canada’s election processes are robust, they are not foolproof. Recently, for instance, an Elections Canada employee was accused of encouraging voters to vote Conservative outside a polling station, and they’re now under investigation for election interference.
Trust in Canada’s election process is high but uneven. This past month, our partners at the Canadian Digital Media Research Network surveyed nearly six thousand people, and found that 85 per cent were confident that Elections Canada would conduct the election fairly. Only 15 per cent indicated a low level of trust, but those responses varied significantly according to people’s preferred party. Only six per cent of Liberal supporters lacked trust in the system, compared with 21 per cent among Conservatives. What explains the uncommon but intense distrust, particularly among Conservative supporters?
Research shows that people are more likely to claim that elections are fraudulent when they support a losing party; the Conservatives have lost the last three elections, and polls suggest they will lose this one. The distrust that comes from losing elections is compounded among groups that already distrust government institutions, which today is more common on the political right.
A second category of election manipulation narratives focuses on foreign interference. While Canadian elections are no stranger to foreign interference, the recent federal inquiry attracted new attention to the problem. In January, when Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue released findings from the inquiry, she declared that foreign disinformation campaigns—including the use of generative AI—pose the single greatest threat to Canadian democracy.
This month, Canada’s Security and Intelligence Threats to Elections, or SITE, Task Force revealed two cases of election manipulation efforts aligned with China. One high-profile account on WeChat promoted false narratives about Mark Carney, but its reach was limited, suggesting it was not a significant propaganda effort. More concerning was SITE’s revelation that posts across multiple platforms disparaged Joe Tay, a Conservative candidate in Toronto who has been critical of Chinese actions in Hong Kong.
Other online narratives allege that Mark Carney and the Liberals are beholden to China. The accounts behind those accusations made similar ones during B.C.’s provincial election, claiming that China orchestrated David Eby’s win. However, to date, there is no evidence that foreign interference changed the B.C. election outcome or is likely to change the federal one. Conspiracies like these, which exaggerate foreign interference, delegitimize Canada’s electoral process and can lead to harmful stereotypes that Chinese or other ethnic communities are weak points in our democracy.
The third category of election manipulation narratives is centred on our information system. We regularly see accusations that mainstream media are simply propaganda tools used to attack Conservatives, that pollsters are lying, or that online influencers are all far-right conspiracy theorists. Social media comments often drip with contempt for those who do not share their views, echoing research showing that people tend to believe that they can see through misinformation but people who support their political opponents are suckers for it.
At a deeper level, many online posts reveal a widespread dissatisfaction that our information environment is polarized and polluted. Social media platforms stoke the rumour mill: they tend to amplify novel or outrageous content, as users are more likely to share claims that provoke strong emotions. At the same time, platforms have reduced fact-checking and—in the case of Meta—deprioritized or outright banned professional journalism sites. Local news media, which may be best-suited to overcome distrust of journalism, have been hardest hit. In an information system this dysfunctional, the public can come to distrust even the fairest of elections.
Whatever government we get after Monday’s vote should work across parties to address these threats to trusted elections, from bad-faith myths of voter fraud to real dangers of foreign interference and a broken information system. Election integrity is a cornerstone of democracy. Canadians must strike a careful balance: encouraging scrutiny that keeps our electoral system fair, while maintaining trust in institutions when they do their job—even when the outcome isn’t what we hoped for.
Chris Tenove is the assistant director of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Institutions. Research for this commentary comes from Nishtha Gupta, Grace Lim, and Mahnan Omar.
