338Canada

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338 projection shows the Liberals falling two seats per day since the campaign began. The Conservatives are the new favourites.

Philippe J. Fournier: After one week, our projection shows the race tightening, support for the NDP growing and the odds of a Liberal majority shrinking

Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus survey points to growing pessimism with the government. It is not a reassuring sign for Justin Trudeau and his team.

Philippe J. Fournier: In their final federal polls of the 2019 campaign, Canada’s pollsters did very well. The miss was largely in underestimating the Conservatives.

Maclean’s election-modelling wizard, Philippe J. Fournier, discusses the parties’ best- and worst-case scenarios, and answers the big questions at the start of the campaign

Philippe J. Fournier: A detailed look at where the country’s top 10 polling firms land when measuring federal polls‚ and which way they tend to skew

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338Canada model suggests it will be a challenge for the Liberals to win a majority, and it’s unlikely to get any easier

Phillippe J. Fournier: The latest Alberta election projection puts the NDP in majority territory, with mounting evidence the UCP’s 2019 path to victory won’t work in 2023

Philippe J. Fournier: The latest federal election projection shows the Liberals falling short of a majority, with an outcome eerily similar to the results of the 2019 election

Philippe J. Fournier: In our latest projection, the CAQ party has more safe seats than the threshold for a majority. Meanwhile, the PQ continues to disintegrate.