338Canada

Philippe J. Fournier: In every region the 338Canada projection was on the mark, and correctly identified the winner in 299 of 338 districts

Philippe J. Fournier: The night before the election, there is no certainty in the numbers. We could end up with the first popular vote and seat split in 40 years.

Philippe J. Fournier: How would this tight election end if Trudeau had kept his electoral reform promise? With three powerful parties, for starters.

Philippe J. Fournier: A big shift in Quebec has changed the election picture with 10 days to go. Gone are the good odds of a Liberal majority.

Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives have fallen behind the surging Bloc, cutting the odds of seat gains needed to win the election

Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives may be on their way to sweep Alberta, but this race—still too close to call—will be decided elsewhere

Philippe J. Fournier: The past decade of Quebec politics has shown voters to be highly volatile. None of the parties can afford to play defence.

Philippe J. Fournier: In the least populated ridings, Conservatives dominate voting intentions by 16 points. In the most populated, Liberals are up by 26 points.

Philippe J. Fournier: It’s too soon to see the full effect of Trudeau’s crisis, with a still very tight race and much uncertainty in the model. Beware the daily noise.

Philippe J. Fournier: The debate commission ruled Bernier’s party has a legitimate shot at winning more than one seat. The 338Canada model suggests not.