338Canada

Philippe J. Fournier: Biden’s lead in the polls has been remarkably consistent. The key will be what happens in states Trump narrowly won in 2016.

Philippe J. Fournier: The NDP begins the campaign comfortably in majority territory with an average of 55 seats, while the Liberals face an uphill battle

Philippe J. Fournier: The 338Canada projection model hit the mark yet again, and has now identified the winner in 90 per cent of all districts over five elections

Philippe J. Fournier: The Liberals still hold the seat count advantage, but their numbers keep slipping while the Conservatives see an uptick in Ontario

Philippe J. Fournier: The Liberals have returned to earth, but neither the Conservatives nor the NDP are profiting from it. Can a new CPC leader move the needle?

Philippe J. Fournier: Canadian political polls tend to hit the mark, except when it comes to counting Conservative support in the West. What’s going wrong?

Philippe J. Fournier: While the Liberals still hold a solid lead over the Conservatives, a host of new polls shows the party beginning to shed support

Philippe J. Fournier: The CAQ is in landslide territory despite the province’s severe outbreak—and Quebecers are feeling as good as ever about being Canadian

Philippe J. Fournier: If only men voted, the Liberal and Conservatives would be in a statistical tie. Only women: the Liberals win a crushing 226 seats.

Philippe J. Fournier: It’s been 30 years since an incumbent has faced such poor numbers, but the electoral college still works in Trump’s favour