Where the parties stand on debate day: 338Canada
Philippe J. Fournier: The latest election projection sees the parties deadlocked. But the Conservatives may have reached their ceiling early in the campaign.
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Philippe J. Fournier
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of 338Canada.com, Qc125.com, a regular contributor to L’actualité magazine and a professor of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. Watch Maclean’s for his upcoming vote projections for the federal election.
338Canada: The Liberals stop the bleeding, at least
Philippe J. Fournier: The latest election projection shows the two main parties deadlocked, though the Conservatives remain the favourites to win the most seats
Polls show O’Toole is the favourite. Voters don’t seem convinced.
Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives are ahead, say the polls. But they also tell us that many voters believe Justin Trudeau will remain in power after the election.
338Canada: The Conservatives surge, the Liberals slide
Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338 projection shows the Liberals falling two seats per day since the campaign began. The Conservatives are the new favourites.
338Canada: The Liberals stumble out of the gate in week one
Philippe J. Fournier: After one week, our projection shows the race tightening, support for the NDP growing and the odds of a Liberal majority shrinking
338Canada: The Liberals cannot afford voter apathy
Philippe J. Fournier: A new Abacus survey points to growing pessimism with the government. It is not a reassuring sign for Justin Trudeau and his team.
338Canada: What did the polls say in 2019?
Philippe J. Fournier: In their final federal polls of the 2019 campaign, Canada’s pollsters did very well. The miss was largely in underestimating the Conservatives.
338Canada: Trudeau’s election to lose
Philippe J. Fournier: A majority is within reach for the Liberals, but the NDP’s current level of support could yet throw a wrench into their plans
Federal election 2021: Know your pollsters
Philippe J. Fournier: A detailed look at where the country’s top 10 polling firms land when measuring federal polls‚ and which way they tend to skew
A fall election? The Liberals may not get a better window.
Philippe J. Fournier: The latest 338Canada model suggests it will be a challenge for the Liberals to win a majority, and it’s unlikely to get any easier