The odds of a Trump win? 19 per cent: 338Canada election forecast
Philippe J. Fournier: The current map shows a distinct advantage towards Joe Biden. But any victory will ultimately come down to three crucial states.
Philippe J. Fournier
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of 338Canada.com, Qc125.com, a regular contributor to L’actualité magazine and a professor of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal.
338Canada exclusive poll: The B.C. NDP’s commanding lead
Philippe J. Fournier: John Horgan’s election gamble appears to be paying off, with a new Mainstreet poll showing an NDP majority and the Liberals in trouble
How much do Canadians dislike Donald Trump? A lot.
A new 338Canada/Léger poll shows that from coast to coast Canadians overwhelmingly support Biden over Trump. The only exception is among Conservatives.
Where the U.S. election will be won or lost (and why Trump still has a shot): 338Canada
Philippe J. Fournier: Biden’s lead in the polls has been remarkably consistent. The key will be what happens in states Trump narrowly won in 2016.
The B.C. election at the starting line: 338Canada projection
Philippe J. Fournier: The NDP begins the campaign comfortably in majority territory with an average of 55 seats, while the Liberals face an uphill battle
The New Brunswick election: a victory for the 338Canada model
Philippe J. Fournier: The 338Canada projection model hit the mark yet again, and has now identified the winner in 90 per cent of all districts over five elections
Liberals and Tories are virtually tied: 338Canada election projection
Philippe J. Fournier: The Liberals still hold the seat count advantage, but their numbers keep slipping while the Conservatives see an uptick in Ontario
Progressive Conservatives in majority territory in New Brunswick poll: 338Canada
Philippe J. Fournier: As of this moment, Blaine Higgs’s PCs are projected to win an average of 28 seats to the Liberals 17. The Greens are solidly in third place.
338Canada projection: The ever-dwindling Liberal lead
Philippe J. Fournier: The Liberals have returned to earth, but neither the Conservatives nor the NDP are profiting from it. Can a new CPC leader move the needle?
How polls keep underestimating the Conservative vote: 338Canada
Philippe J. Fournier: Canadian political polls tend to hit the mark, except when it comes to counting Conservative support in the West. What’s going wrong?