The Year Ahead: Housing

1. A New Player Will Flood the Prefab Pipeline

Mattamy Homes CEO Peter Gilgan’s first prefab-housing push was a bit too ahead of its time. In the late ’90s, investors weren’t quite picking up what he was putting down with Stelumar, a prescient startup specializing in speedy builds of single-family detached homes. In 2026, Gilgan will meet his moment. Stelumar Advanced Manufacturing Inc., a shinier version of his early modular-home factory, is slated to produce roughly 3,000 of them annually. This time, it’ll focus on six-storey, city-friendly builds, shrinking per-unit assembly timelines to six months with the help of some 2020s-era tech: AI.

2. Many, Many Mortgages Will Roll Over

This year marks a time of literal renewal in Canada’s mortgage sector. By the end of 2026, roughly 60 per cent of the country’s mortgage holders are expected to trade their past payment rates for new ones. Team Fixed Rate is in the majority, according to the Bank of Canada. Their monthly payments may jump by between 15 and 20 per cent—a hike that could result in some households shelling out roughly $5,000 extra annually. The future is rosier for some variable-raters: their renewals could mean a five to seven per cent monthly payment drop. The Big Five banks predict some delinquencies, but they aren’t in panic mode. Most mortgage holders, they say, will still be able to pass stress tests.

3. Carney’s Billion-Dollar Building Fund Will Break Ground…

In mid-September, the Carney government came out swinging against housing unaffordability with the $13-billion launch of Build Canada Homes. The new federal agency had a wildly ambitious mandate from the jump: to flood the market with affordable, community and middle-class housing by leveraging a combo of public-private partnerships, government land, lightning-fast approvals, the highest-tech construction methods available and—in a not-so-surprising elbows-up twist—Canadian-made materials. (Mass timber, anyone?) Under the leadership of CEO Ana Bailão, Toronto’s former deputy mayor, the agency is set to unveil its first six housing sites—spread across five provinces—in 2026. Dartmouth, Longueuil, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg and Edmonton: it’s nation-building time.  

4. …but Ontario Won’t Hold Up Its End of the Building Bargain

Residential construction is showing signs of trouble in Ontario. Alberta, which has a third of its population, has all but closed the gap in terms of new housing starts—and Ontario could soon be overtaken by Quebec, too, which also recently turbocharged its pipeline. A nasty mix of high materials costs and waning investor enthusiasm has mangled Ontario’s momentum since COVID and, shocker, Trump’s tariff hysteria has only worsened matters. Job losses are expected to ravage Ontario’s construction industry in the next few months, which means fewer shovels in the ground where they’re needed most.

5. Condo Projects Will Keep Getting Axed

Last year was an especially cursed one for Canada’s condo-adjacent—on the buying and selling sides. In 2026, the hits will keep on coming, as developers continue to deep-six their plans to fill the skyline. Ten projects were recently killed in Toronto’s downtown core, while in the third quarter of 2025, a measly two projects (totalling 614 units) began construction. A September report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation was also filled with foreboding, documenting a rising tide of investors balking at pre-construction purchases over (pretty valid) worries about future profitability.

6. Cities Will Support Emergency Micro-Shelters

Some cities continue to play encampment Whac-A-Mole. Others are planting stakes in the ground—if only temporary ones. In the last year, micro-shelters have popped up everywhere from Kelowna, B.C., to Bathurst, New Brunswick. One of the latest is in London, Ontario, where, this past October, city staff laid the groundwork for a new emergency encampment with 24-hour security, garbage collection and modular homes equipped with indoor heat to carry at least 60 residents through winter. The site is expected to stand through 2027.

7. More Snowbirds Will Fly Home

Thanks to Trump’s tariff antics and recent fingerprinting edict, we learned it was indeed possible to suck the joy out of one of the most quintessentially Canadian pastimes: hopping the border for short trips. The fallout has reverberated well beyond Buffalo. Per a Royal LePage survey from last August, 54 per cent of Canadians who own property in the States were considering selling within the next year. The snowbird snub is bad for Sun Belt economies like Arizona and Florida—and their local pickleball courts—but it could signal another Buy Canadian boom. Close to one-third of Royal LePage’s respondents said they may reinvest their real estate money in markets back home.

8. Ontario’s Construction Industry Will Yell “Timber!”

Toronto builder Assembly will roll out its own prefab lab in mid-2026, churning out roughly 1,600 housing units annually. Its secret weapon? Wood—specifically, a building practice called panelized modular wood construction. (That’s the in-factory assembly of floors, walls and entire rooms before they’re puzzled together.) Ontario’s recent multi-million-dollar Advanced Wood Construction Action Plan will also dial up the use of local timber products to offset tariff-related losses in the forestry sector.

9. Winnipeg Will Tuck Homes Inside Heritage Buildings

Last November, the city of Winnipeg and CentreVenture Development Corporation launched the Downtown Heritage Residential Conversion Grant Pilot, a blitz to reanimate local heritage buildings—some decades dormant—in the city core by packing them with much-needed housing units. To qualify for the $25,000 grants, the buildings must be listed under Winnipeg’s Historical Resources By-law and create at least five new residential units. The winning properties will be announced this January.

10. Land-Claim Confusion Will Stoke Tensions in B.C.

B.C’s Supreme Court recently granted the Cowichan Nation title over roughly 800 acres of land in and near Richmond— a settlement colonial governor James Douglas had earmarked for future “Indian reserves.” The problem? Up to 150 people currently own property there. Nobody’s expected to make any sudden moves, but legal experts say the ruling could jeopardize private ownership in the area. Justice Barbara Young has granted an 18-month stay so the feds, the Cowichan and the city of Richmond can make, in her words, “necessary arrangements.”