338Canada: The urban-rural divide, right along party lines
Philippe J. Fournier: In the least populated ridings, Conservatives dominate voting intentions by 16 points. In the most populated, Liberals are up by 26 points.
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Philippe J. Fournier
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of 338Canada.com, Qc125.com, a regular contributor to L’actualité magazine and a professor of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. Watch Maclean’s for his upcoming vote projections for the federal election.
This week’s 338Canada projection: Advantage Conservatives
Philippe J. Fournier: It’s too soon to see the full effect of Trudeau’s crisis, with a still very tight race and much uncertainty in the model. Beware the daily noise.
338Canada: The very long odds for the PPC
Philippe J. Fournier: The debate commission ruled Bernier’s party has a legitimate shot at winning more than one seat. The 338Canada model suggests not.
This week’s 338Canada projection: A look at where the pollsters agree and disagree
Philippe J. Fournier: The poll average shows an incredibly close race at the top, but no consensus on where NDP support stands
338Canada: A Day 1 vote projection shows a Liberal lead and a new NDP low
Philippe J. Fournier: A flurry of new polls are out to mark the start of the federal election campaign. They put the Liberals one seat shy of a majority.
The latest 338Canada projection: The Liberals’ uncomfortable lead
Philippe J. Fournier: The Liberals have the edge in the seat projection, but their lead in many ridings is not considered ’safe’. Small swings could have dramatics impacts.
This week’s 338Canada projection: Is the NDP on the verge of collapse?
Philippe J. Fournier: In the best case scenario given the latest numbers, the NDP barely wins more than half of its 2015 seat total. Worst case, it risks losing official party status.
The latest 338Canada projection: The Liberals keep hanging on
Philippe J. Fournier: With the ethics commissioner’s report behind them, the regional breakdown this week still gives the Liberals an edge
SNC-Lavalin may not be a ballot box winner for Scheer
Philippe J. Fournier: Three new polls conducted after the ethics commissioner’s report was released show the race still deadlocked
A new 338Canada/Maclean’s projection: Could SNC-Lavalin hurt the Liberals again?
Philippe J. Fournier: Pollsters are likely in the field on the heels of the latest developments in the SNC-Lavalin affair. Right now, Liberals and Tories are statistically tied.