Who wins Election 2019 under a ranked-ballot system
Philippe J. Fournier: The system the Liberals once favoured would have benefitted that party—and exposed a real Conservative weakness
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Philippe J. Fournier
Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of 338Canada.com, Qc125.com, a regular contributor to L’actualité magazine and a professor of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. Watch Maclean’s for his upcoming vote projections for the federal election.
A 338Canada analysis: Where the Conservatives lost
Philippe J. Fournier: A riding-by-riding breakdown of the election results shows the Conservatives’ biggest weaknesses—and a troubling urban-rural divide
The 338Canada post-election report: We called it
Philippe J. Fournier: In every region the 338Canada projection was on the mark, and correctly identified the winner in 299 of 338 districts
The final 338Canada projection: The most uncertain federal election in decades
Philippe J. Fournier: The night before the election, there is no certainty in the numbers. We could end up with the first popular vote and seat split in 40 years.
A 338Canada projection: If proportional representation was real
Philippe J. Fournier: How would this tight election end if Trudeau had kept his electoral reform promise? With three powerful parties, for starters.
This week’s 338Canada projection: ’Prime Minister Andrew Scheer’?
Philippe J. Fournier: The 2015 Trudeau coalition may be falling apart as the NDP and Bloc surge. It has left the Conservatives with the slightest edge.
This week’s 338Canada projection: Welcome to minority territory
Philippe J. Fournier: A big shift in Quebec has changed the election picture with 10 days to go. Gone are the good odds of a Liberal majority.
A 338Canada projection: Have the Tories blown it in Quebec?
Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives have fallen behind the surging Bloc, cutting the odds of seat gains needed to win the election
This week’s 338Canada projection: Unfortunately, Alberta won’t matter
Philippe J. Fournier: The Conservatives may be on their way to sweep Alberta, but this race—still too close to call—will be decided elsewhere
Quebec’s political mood swings
Philippe J. Fournier: The past decade of Quebec politics has shown voters to be highly volatile. None of the parties can afford to play defence.